로그인





연락처 :
bolle1917@gmail.com

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11625406/The-world-is-drowning-in-debt-warns-Goldman-Sachs.html


The world is drowning in debt, warns Goldman Sachs

Ageing populations mean countries' debt piles risk growing out of control, warns European head of Goldman Sachs Asset Management

7K
1K
25
304
8K
Email

The world is sinking under too much debt and an ageing global population means countries' debt piles are in danger of growing out of control, the European chief executive of Goldman Sachs Asset Management has warned.

Andrew Wilson, head of Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), said growing debt piles around the world posed one of the biggest threats to the global economy.

"There is too much debt and this represents a risk to economies. Consequently, there is a clear need to generate growth to work that debt off but, as demographics change, new ways of thinking at a policy level are required to do this," he said.

"The demographics in most major economies – including the US, in Europe and Japan - are a major issue – and present us with the question of how we are going to pay down the huge debt burden. With life expectancy increasing rapidly, we no longer have the young, working populations required to sustain a debt-driven economic model in the same way as we've managed to do in the past."

Mr Wilson used Japan, where gross government debt has climbed above 200pc of gross domestic product (GDP), as an example of where the ageing population could demographics were working against them. "[This] is evidently not sustainable over the long term," he said.

The Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has also sounded out a warning about Japan's growing debt pile. The Paris-based think-tank said gross government debt was on course to balloon to more than 400pc by 2040 if the government did not carry out reforms.

Angel Gurria, the OECD's secretary-general, said monetary stimulus and stronger growth alone would not be enough to haul the economy out of its two-decade malaise.

"Japan's future prospects depend on ensuring fiscal sustainability over the long term. With a budget deficit of around 8pc of GDP, the debt ratio is set to rise further into uncharted territory," he said.

Others have warned privately that Japan's debt mountain is unsustainable. "The crunch point is when it starts to run a current account deficit," said one senior banker. "When they stop running a current account surplus and they need our money to survive, we're not going to lend to them at 30 or 40 basis points."

Mr Wilson said there was hope for countries with high debt burdens. "The demographic shift means that we need to look to more creative policy, including immigration and workforce expansion in order to find ways to pay down debt.

This is happening in Japan in the form of [prime minister] Shinzo Abe's drive to increase female labour participation and via efforts to boost inflation."

The Goldman chief also said that warnings about liquidity shortages in the market were being "overplayed", especially with regards to the corporate bond market. He also said that bouts of volatility when the US Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates were to be be expected.

High profile executives including Jamie Dimon, the head of JP Morgan, and Tim Adams, the head of the Institute of International Finance have warned that the raft of regulation introduced in the wake of the 2008 crisis could potentially cause huge volatility in the markets.

While Mr Wilson said the European Central Bank's €60bn a month bond-buying progamme meant it was hard to judge how liquid the market was, he added: "We should expect some growth in volatility - but I do not view that as a negative. In fact, I would view this as getting back to a more normal world. Moving out of an environment where there is a huge amount of government and central bank policy designed to provide certainty and liquidity and to dampen volatility is a healthy sign, not an unhealthy one."

7K
1K
25
304
8K
Email
?

List of Articles
번호 제목 글쓴이 날짜 조회 수
313 [브라질] Brazil: how could a far-right demagogue win the election? 볼셰비키 2018.10.30 224
312 [이스라엘] Israeli forces leave 41 children homeless after razing Palestinian village, UN says 볼셰비키 2020.11.07 224
311 [아일랜드] A better way of being 볼셰비키-레닌주의자 2014.11.25 227
310 [IBT] Open Letter to the Opposition within the ‘Fourth International’ 볼셰비키 2017.06.11 227
309 [한반도/중동] De-escalation With North Korea, Escalation With Iran 볼셰비키 2018.05.02 227
308 [베네수엘라] Venezuela crisis: US pulls out staff and tells citizens to 'strongly consider' leaving 볼셰비키 2019.01.25 227
307 [트로츠키/스탈린] Reassessing Leon Trotsky’s biography of Stalin 볼셰비키 2017.12.05 228
306 [한반도/미국/민중의 소리] 코피전략? 당신이 생각한대로 될 가능성은 ‘0’이다 볼셰비키 2018.02.08 228
305 [동독] 25 years of 1989 볼셰비키 2015.04.28 229
304 [아랍] The Arab World and the Struggle Against Austerity 볼셰비키 2018.06.12 229
303 [미국] IBT : Mumia Abu-Jamal’s Life in Danger 볼셰비키 2015.04.14 230
302 [팔레스타인/이스라엘] The Colonization of Palestine: Rethinking the Term ‘Israeli Occupation’ 볼셰비키 2018.10.06 231
301 [미국/베네수엘라] Wolf at the Door: Prospects of US Military Intervention in Venezuela 볼셰비키 2018.10.10 231
300 [이란/북한/미국] Irani FM says he will visit North Korea 볼셰비키 2019.04.29 232
299 [중국] Pakistan Enters The New Silk Road 볼셰비키 2015.04.28 233
Board Pagination Prev 1 ... 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 ... 45 Next
/ 45