로그인





연락처 :
bolle1917@gmail.com


https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/09/24/the-drone-strikes-on-the-saudi-oil-facilities-have-changed-global-warfare/?fbclid=IwAR2zIn-lLiBdN7wbWC_ERK3tCLGGoQOJzzqPaZ2YvQENUJjWOqE72JIwHS8

The Drone Strikes on the Saudi Oil Facilities Have Changed Global Warfare

 

Photograph Source: VOA – Public Domain

The devastating attack on Saudi oil facilities by drones and missiles not only transforms the balance of military power in the Middle East, but marks a change in the nature of warfare globally.

On the morning of 14 September, 18 drones and seven cruise missiles – all cheap and unsophisticated compared to modern military aircraft – disabled half of Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production and raised the world price of oil by 20 per cent.

This happened despite the Saudis spending $67.6bn (£54bn) on their defence budget last year, much of it on vastly expensive aircraft and air defence systems, which notably failed to stop the attack. The US defence budget stands at $750bn (£600.2bn), and its intelligence budget at $85bn (£68bn), but the US forces in the Gulf did not know what was happening until it was all over.

Excuses advanced for this failure include the drones flying too low to be detected and unfairly coming from a direction different from the one that might have been expected. Such explanations sound pathetic when set against the proud boasts of the arms manufacturers and military commanders about the effectiveness of their weapons systems.

Debate is ongoing about whether it was the Iranians or the Houthis who carried out the attack, the likely answer being a combination of the two, but perhaps with Iran orchestrating the operation and supplying the equipment. But over-focus on responsibility diverts attention from a much more important development: a middle ranking power like Iran, under sanctions and with limited resources and expertise, acting alone or through allies, has inflicted crippling damage on theoretically much better-armed Saudi Arabia which is supposedly defended by the US, the world’s greatest military super-power.

If the US and Saudi Arabia are particularly hesitant to retaliate against Iran it is because they know now, contrary to what they might have believed a year ago, that a counter-attack will not be a cost-free exercise. What happened before can happen again: not for nothing has Iran been called a “drone superpower”. Oil production facilities and the desalination plants providing much of the fresh water in Saudi Arabia are conveniently concentrated targets for drones and small missiles.

In other words, the military playing field will be a lot more level in future in a conflict between a country with a sophisticated air force and air defence system and one without. The trump card for the US, Nato powers and Israel has long been their overwhelming superiority in airpower over any likely enemy. Suddenly this calculus has been undermined because almost anybody can be a player on the cheap when it comes to airpower.

Anthony Cordesman, a military expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, succinctly sums up the importance of this change, writing that “the strikes on Saudi Arabia provide a clear strategic warning that the US era of air supremacy in the Gulf, and the near US monopoly on precision strike capability, is rapidly fading.” He explains that a new generation of drones, cruise missiles, and precision strike ballistic missiles are entering the Iranian inventories and have begun to spread to the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Similar turning points in military history have occurred when the deployment of an easily produced weapon suddenly checkmates the use of a more complicated one.

A good example of this was the attack on 11 November 1940, on five Italian battleships, moored at their base at Taranto by 20 slow moving but sturdy British Swordfish biplanes, armed with torpedoes and launched from an aircraft carrier. At the end of the day, three of the battleships had been sunk or badly damaged while only two of the British planes were missing. The enormity of the victory achieved at such minimal cost ended the era when battleships ruled the sea and replaced them with one in which aircraft carriers with torpedo/bomber were supreme. It was a lesson noted by the Japanese navy which attacked Pearl Harbor in similar fashion a year after Taranto.

The Saudis showed off the wreckage of the drones and missiles to assembled diplomats and journalists this week in a bid to convince them that the Iranians were behind the air raid. But the most significant feature of the broken drone and missile parts was that, in full working order, the weapons that had just rocked the world economy would not have cost a lot. By way of contrast, the US-made Patriot anti-aircraft missiles, the main air defence of Saudi Arabia that were so useless last Saturday, cost $3m apiece.

Cost and simplicity are important because they mean that Iran, the Houthis, Hezbollah and almost any country can produce drones and missiles in numbers large enough to overwhelm any defences they are likely to meet.

Compare the cost of the drone which would be in the tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars to the $122m (£97.6m) price of a single F-35 fighter, so expensive that it can only be purchased in limited numbers. As they take on board the meaning of what happened at Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities, governments around the world will be demanding that their air force chiefs explain why they need to spend so much money when cheap but effective alternatives are available. Going by past precedent, the air chiefs and arms manufacturers will fight to their last breath for grossly inflated budgets to purchase weapons of dubious utility in a real war.

The attack on Saudi Arabia reinforces a trend in warfare in which inexpensive easily acquired weapons come out on top. Consider the track record of the Improvised Explosive Device (IED), usually made out of easily available fertiliser, detonated by a command wire, and planted in or beside a road. These were used with devastating effect by the IRA in South Armagh, forcing the British Army off the roads and into helicopters.

IEDs were used in great numbers and with great effect against US-led coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Immense resources were deployed by the US military into finding a counter to this deadly device, which included spending no less than $40bn (£32bn) on 27,000 heavily armoured vehicles called MRAPs. A subsequent army study revealed that that the number of US servicemen killed and wounded in an attack on an MRAP was exactly the same as in the vehicles which they had replaced.

It is unthinkable that American, British and Saudi military chiefs will accept that they command expensive, technically advanced forces that are obsolete in practice. This means they are stuck with arms that suck up resources but are, in practical terms, out of date. The Japanese, soon after they had demonstrated at Pearl Harbour the vulnerability of battleships, commissioned the world’s largest battleship, the Yamato, which fired its guns only once and was sunk in 1945 by US torpedo aircraft and bombers operating from aircraft carriers.

?

List of Articles
번호 제목 글쓴이 날짜 조회 수
643 [중동] Has Washington Just Shot Itself in the Oily Foot? 볼셰비키-레닌주의자 2014.11.25 1197
642 [WSWS/미국] The Republic For Which It Stands: The United States During Reconstruction and the Gilded Age, 1865-1896 볼셰비키 2017.12.09 1177
641 [미국/극우] Infiltrator Goes Inside the Alt-Right, and What He Finds Is Disturbing 볼셰비키 2017.09.28 1169
640 [캐나다] Headed for a showdown in Quebec 볼셰비키 2015.10.11 1103
639 [ISIS/터키] ISIS survives largely because Turkey allows it to: the evidence 볼셰비키 2015.11.27 1097
638 [중국/BT] The Myth of Capitalist China: ‘Trotskyist’ impressionists can’t explain resurgent state sector 볼셰비키 2020.11.08 1094
637 [영국] The Far Left and the 2015 UK General Election 볼셰비키 2015.04.20 1088
636 [시리아] The League of Assad-Loving Conspiracy Theorists 볼셰비키 2018.04.27 1065
635 [미국] 40 Percent Of Americans Now ‘Prefer Socialism To Capitalism’ 볼셰비키 2017.09.06 1035
634 [프랑스] 샤를리 엡도의 역사 볼셰비키 2015.01.17 1021
633 [중동/IG] Defend the Kurds! Drive Out U.S./NATO Imperialists! 볼셰비키 2019.10.20 976
632 [WSWS/ 제국주의] Critical resources, imperialism and the war against Russia 볼셰비키 2022.06.03 972
631 Soviet-era erotic alphabet book from 1931 [Советская эротическая азбука 1931 года] 볼셰비키 2015.05.21 946
630 [미국] U.S. HAS SPENT SIX TRILLION DOLLARS ON WARS THAT KILLED HALF A MILLION PEOPLE SINCE 9/11, REPORT SAYS 볼셰비키 2019.04.17 911
629 [필리핀/스탈린주의] CPP founder Sison regurgitates Stalinist lies about Trotskyism 볼셰비키 2020.09.14 907
Board Pagination Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ... 45 Next
/ 45